Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote’s wealth doubles with $23 billion gamble

After more than a decade of delays, financial hurdles, and regulatory battles, Aliko Dangote’s $23 billion oil refinery is now operational, reshaping Nigeria’s energy sector and boosting the billionaire’s fortune. However, the refinery’s success has not eased the burden of high fuel prices for Nigerians, raising new economic concerns. The Dangote Refinery, located in Nigeria’s Lekki Free Zone, began operations last year and has since ramped up production. It processed 350,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the second half of 2024, increasing to 500,000 b/d in January 2025. By next month, it is expected to reach its full capacity of 650,000 b/d, making it the seventh-largest refinery in the world and Africa’s biggest. Additionally, its petrochemical complex has an annual production capacity of three million metric tons of urea, positioning it as the continent’s largest fertiliser producer. “This is a very, very big relief,” Dangote said in an interview with Forbes. “Nobody ever gave us the chance to prove this through.” The refinery has already impacted global energy markets, reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel and making the country a net exporter of jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil. Dangote now world’s 65th richest with $28bn net worth The refinery has nearly doubled Dangote’s fortune to an estimated $23.8 billion, solidifying his status as Africa’s richest man and returning him to Forbes’ list of the world’s top 100 billionaires for the first time since 2018. However, he insists his actual worth is even higher. Despite these milestones, the refinery’s journey has been fraught with challenges. Initial doubts about its viability were compounded by difficulties in securing crude oil from the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). The project’s financial feasibility was at stake, but Dangote persevered, citing a larger mission: reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and fostering industrialisation across Africa. “We have to build our own nation by ourselves. We have to build our own continent by ourselves, not [rely on] foreign investment,” Dangote said. He argues that Africa has long been “a mere dumping ground for finished products” and that the refinery marks a crucial step toward self-sufficiency. Yet, the refinery’s impact on local fuel prices has been less than favourable. Petrol costs have surged by 60% in the last six months, exacerbating the economic strain on Nigerians. Impact of subsidy removal This price hike is largely due to President Bola Tinubu’s decision in May 2023 to remove Nigeria’s fuel subsidy. While the subsidy’s removal was initially justified by the anticipated benefits of the Dangote Refinery, it was briefly reinstated when fuel prices tripled, only to be cut again, leading to another sharp increase. The rising fuel costs have sparked protests across Nigeria, as many businesses and households rely on petrol-powered generators due to the country’s erratic power supply. Public frustration continues to mount, with many questioning the refinery’s immediate benefits. Dangote blames the NNPC, which oversees the country’s fuel subsidy program and holds a stake in his refinery. Initially, NNPC agreed to acquire a 20% stake for $1 billion but later reduced its share to 7% and requested a partial refund. Dangote vs NNPC The state oil company also pledged to supply 300,000 b/d of crude to the refinery but failed to meet this commitment. In response, Dangote sued the NNPC in September, accusing it of violating a 2021 law that mandates crude producers to prioritise domestic refiners. The case remains ongoing. “The oil mafia are more deadly than the one in drugs,” Dangote stated bluntly, referring to the network of interests within the country’s oil sector. “You might be wining and dining with them, but these are the guys that are really the masters of moving things around.” Despite these tensions, Dangote maintains a close relationship with President Tinubu. “We have an extremely, very good relationship. I’ve known him for a very long time,” he said. Dangote’s rise from a young entrepreneur in Kano to Africa’s wealthiest industrialist is marked by ambition and strategic decision-making. His journey began with an import-export venture in Lagos, later expanding into cement, sugar, and flour. By the late 1990s, he capitalised on Nigeria’s transition to democracy, securing tax incentives to build large-scale manufacturing plants. His cement business became his primary source of wealth, yielding high-profit margins and funding his ambitious refinery project. Dangote’s oil sector debut When he announced plans for the refinery in 2013, Dangote envisioned a $10 billion plant in southwest Nigeria. However, land disputes forced him to relocate, incurring additional costs. Construction delays, exacerbated by COVID-19, drove the final cost to nearly $23 billion—more than double the initial estimate. To finance the project, Dangote secured $5.5 billion in bank loans and sold stakes in his cement business to foreign investors, including Dubai’s investment corporation and an Australian sovereign wealth fund. The refinery still carries about $3 billion in outstanding debt. In August, Fitch downgraded its rating on Dangote’s publicly traded bonds, citing liquidity concerns. Yet, industry experts believe the refinery remains a game-changer for Nigeria’s economy. “The advent of the Dangote Refinery is transformative for the dynamics of Nigeria’s energy market,” said Clementine Wallop, an Africa analyst at Horizon Engage While Nigerians remain burdened by rising fuel costs, many still regard Dangote as a hero. “He is seen in most parts of Nigeria as a real industrialist who builds things,” said Zainab Usman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As the refinery reaches full capacity, its long-term effects on Nigeria’s economy remain uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Dangote’s bold vision has reshaped Africa’s energy landscape—whether for better or worse depends on who you ask.