Comparative Analysis of Top Telcos in Nigeria: MTN vs Airtel vs Glo

Nigeria’s telecommunication sector has seen significant fluctuations over the past year, with recent figures showing a remarkable recovery from regulation-driven contractions. The sector is still dominated by three industry titans MTN, Airtel, and Globacom (Glo) each with varied growth patterns and market approaches. This comparison of their relative performance by subscriber base, market share, service offerings, and growth trends finds that the sector is recovering despite recent regulatory challenges. Regulatory Impact on Subscriptions The telecom sector was severely affected by the NCC’s National Identification Number (NIN)-SIM linkage policy that came into effect in December 2023. The policy, which barred unverified SIMs from being active on networks, led to active mobile subscriptions plummeting sharply from a peak of 218.4 million in January 2024 to the current 169.3 million. Major players were hit hardest, with MTN deactivating 4.2 million lines and Airtel having 4.9 million NIN verifications pending. The sector is now showing clear indications of recovery as verification procedures standardize and consumer confidence returns. Market Share Analysis and Subscriber Base MTN Nigeria: The Dominant Player MTN Nigeria continues to maintain its position as the market leader, commanding a dominant 51.79% market share of the telecoms industry as of January 2025. The operator has recorded remarkable growth with an increase in subscribers to 87.5 million in January 2025 from 84.6 million in December 2024-an increase by 2.9 million subscribers in one month. This growth trend consolidates MTN’s market dominance and attests to the effectiveness of the company’s strategies in customer retention and acquisition amid regulatory pressures. MTN’s financial results, however, present a complex picture. Although the company gained subscribers, it reported a massive loss of N400.4 billion in the 2024 fiscal year even when its overall subscribers increased 1.6% to 80.9 million in its annual report. The performance shows that although MTN remains in the market leadership status, it has operational challenges affecting its bottom line. Airtel Nigeria: The Strong Challenger Airtel Nigeria holds the second position in the market with a 34.11% share as of January 2025. The operator has continued to record sustained growth, having increased its subscribers to 57.6 million in January 2025 from 56.6 million as of December 2024-addition of 1 million new subscribers during this time. The performance of Airtel portrays its good competitive standing and effective market strategies that continue to attract and retain customers. Airtel’s growth pattern reflects a deliberate focus on strategic growth and service quality, allowing it to maintain a large lead over the third-ranked competitor while steadily closing the gap with market leader MTN. The firm has managed to overcome the regulatory challenges that had affected the entire industry, reflecting resilience in its business model. Globacom (Glo): The Indigenous Competitor Globacom, as Nigeria’s wholly indigenous telecommunications company, comes in third position with a market share of 12.15%. The operator has reported enhanced performance after previously losing subscribers in 2024 owing to regulatory audits with the subscriber base growing from 20.1 million in December 2024 to 20.5 million in January 2025. The modest increase signifies a slow revival for the operator. Historical data show that Glo had recorded unprecedented growth in previous years, adding over 5.4 million subscribers in 2022 to reach 60.29 million subscribers as of the end of that year. The sharp contrast between this figure and current subscriber numbers means that Glo was disproportionately affected by the NIN-SIM verification exercise and regulatory audits. Despite all these challenges, the company still markets itself as the “Grandmaster of Data,” touting its 4G LTE network attributes and added services. 9mobile: The Struggling Fourth 9mobile has continued its downward trajectory, holding just 1.94% of the market share with 3.2 million subscribers-a figure that has remained stagnant for three consecutive months as of January 2025. The operator’s current position represents a dramatic decline from its previous market presence in 2015, when it held a 15.7% market share with 23.4 million subscribers. This persistent decline suggests fundamental challenges in 9mobile’s business model, competitive positioning, or possibly underlying financial constraints. Competitive Strategies and Service Differentiation MTN’s Market Leadership Approach MTN’s dominant position is maintained through extensive network coverage, substantial infrastructure investments, and a diverse range of service offerings. The company’s ability to add nearly 3 million subscribers in a single month demonstrates its effective customer acquisition strategies and strong brand presence. MTN’s market leadership is further reinforced by its comprehensive service portfolio spanning voice, data, mobile financial services, and enterprise solutions. Airtel’s Growth-Focused Strategy Airtel has positioned itself as a strong challenger to MTN’s dominance through competitive pricing, network expansion, and innovative service packages. The addition of 1 million subscribers in January 2025 reflects the effectiveness of Airtel’s customer-centric approach and growing network reliability. The company appears to be leveraging its global presence and technological expertise to strengthen its position in the Nigerian market. Glo’s Indigenous Advantage and Data Focus Globacom differentiates itself through its indigenous identity and specialized focus on data services. The company has developed unique customer engagement strategies, including entertainment-based promotions like the “Glo Battle of the Year Nigeria” dance competition and the “Glo Festival of Joy” which rewards subscribers with prizes ranging from houses to cars and other items. Glo’s self-identification as the “Grandmaster of Data” underscores its emphasis on internet service quality and competitive data plans. Despite these efforts, Glo’s current market position reflects significant challenges in maintaining subscriber loyalty in the face of regulatory pressures and fierce competition from MTN and Airtel. The company’s recovery trajectory suggests a gradual rebuilding of its customer base through these engagement strategies and service differentiation. Future Growth Prospects and Market Outlook The Nigerian telecommunications market is projected to maintain steady growth, reaching $17.13 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 5.20%. This growth potential will likely drive continued competition among the major operators as they vie for market share in an increasingly digital economy. Industry experts, including Gbenga Adebayo, Chairman of the Association of Licensed Telecom Operators of Nigeria (ALTON), anticipate continued increases in telecom subscriptions following the completion of the NIN-SIM linkage exercise for existing SIM cards. Opportunities for Expansion The Nigerian telecom sector presents significant growth opportunities through: Digital transformation initiatives: As businesses and government services increasingly digitize, demand for reliable connectivity will grow Mobile financial services: The expansion of mobile banking and payment solutions offers revenue diversification for telcos Rural connectivity: Substantial untapped markets exist in underserved rural areas where penetration remains low Data-centric services: Growing smartphone adoption drives increased demand for data services and content Competitive Challenges Despite the growth potential, operators face several challenges: By Firdaous Ibrahim