Nigeria’s $2.3 trillion gamble: Can private capital build a first-world nation?

Nigeria, Africa’s economic giant, is at a critical juncture, facing a staggering infrastructure deficit estimated at over $2.3 trillion by the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC).  With its current infrastructure stock accounting for only 30% of its GDP, far below the World Bank’s recommended 70%, the nation’s ambitious vision of becoming a first-world economy hinges on a dramatic shift towards Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). The imperative for this strategic pivot was the central theme of the 2025 Nigeria Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Summit in Abuja.  Under the banner “Unlocking Nigeria’s Potential: The Role of Public-Private Partnerships in Delivering the Renewed Hope Agenda,” the summit solidified a consensus: public budgets alone are insufficient to bridge the vast development gap.  President Bola Tinubu, through his representative, underscored this reality, affirming that “the era of government-only funding for capital projects is no longer sustainable.” 42 Million Freshly Impoverished Nigerians: Economic Reforms Lay Foundation Amidst Growing Public Hardship The administration’s commitment to attracting private capital is underpinned by a series of bold economic reforms. The removal of the long-standing fuel subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, while aimed at stabilising the business environment and optimising government revenues, have triggered significant immediate challenges. Despite a projected economic growth of 3.4% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, the cost of living has surged, pushing an additional 42 million Nigerians into poverty since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the national poverty rate to approximately 46% in 2024. The World Bank notes that Nigeria now accounts for 15% of the world’s extremely poor. This economic hardship, exacerbated by inflation and reduced purchasing power, presents a complex socio-economic landscape that PPP initiatives must navigate to ensure inclusive growth and public acceptance.  Experts emphasise the need for robust, institutionalized social safety nets to mitigate these impacts, potentially financed by special taxes on profitable sectors. PPP Summit Unveils Blueprint for Progress The 2025 PPP Summit, hosted by the ICRC, served as a crucial platform for direct engagement between government officials and global investors. Attracting approximately 1,500 attendees, including representatives from Afreximbank, Africa50, and KPMG, the summit fostered “co-creation sessions” designed to dismantle bureaucratic bottlenecks and accelerate deal-making. A significant outcome was the strong advocacy for establishing a national Infrastructure Company (Infra-Co), modeled after global best practices, such as the Hong Kong MTR. This entity would systematically own and manage public infrastructure, particularly railways, and then concession these assets for operation and maintenance. The proposal suggests that a core investor hold at least a 50% stake, with gradual government divestment, thereby fundamentally de-risking entire sectors for large-scale private investment. The summit showcased a robust pipeline of strategic projects, including the $3.5 billion Bakassi Deep Seaport and the $1.3 billion Ondo Seaport, both of which are critical for enhancing Nigeria’s port capacity and stimulating regional industrialisation.  Other key initiatives highlighted were the Highway Development and Management Initiative (HDMI) for road networks and the Egini Medical Infrastructure Scheme. The successful Lekki Deep Sea Port was presented as a replicable model for future ventures. ICRC at the Forefront of De-Risking Investments The Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC) plays a central role in Nigeria’s Public-Private Partnership (PPP) drive. Empowered by the current administration, the ICRC’s mandate to regulate, de-risk, and facilitate public-private partnership (PPP) projects has been significantly strengthened.  Director-General Dr. Jobson Oseodion Ewalefoh emphasised the shift “from policy to projects, from talks to tangible transformation,” underscoring the ICRC’s role in ensuring compliance and fostering investor confidence. The government’s directive in 2024, mandating all Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to strictly comply with the ICRC Act and Guidelines in all Public-Private Partnership (PPP) transactions, signals a robust commitment to a rules-based framework. The Road Ahead: Transparency, Inclusivity, and Long-Term Vision Despite the momentum, experts at the summit issued stern warnings: Nigeria risks losing potential investors without clear and consistent policy frameworks, robust investor protection, and unwavering long-term policy consistency. Addressing persistent fiscal irresponsibility and corruption, particularly at subnational levels, remains paramount. The diversion of state funds and the failure to translate increased federal allocations into tangible improvements highlight systemic governance challenges that must be addressed for PPPs to deliver effectively. Nigeria’s journey to becoming a first-world nation through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) demands a multifaceted approach. Beyond attracting capital, it requires meticulous project preparation, including detailed feasibility studies and well-defined risk allocation. Mobilising diverse capital sources, both foreign and domestic, will be crucial for success. Most importantly, PPP projects must be structured not only for infrastructure delivery but also for inclusive development outcomes, generating widespread employment, promoting local content, and enhancing equitable access to essential services for all Nigerians. By strategically leveraging Public-Private Partnerships, coupled with sustained political will, transparent governance, and a steadfast dedication to inclusive growth, Nigeria aims to bridge its infrastructure gap, unlock its demographic dividend, and reshape its future into one of prosperity and global prominence. The blueprint for this transformative journey has been laid; the challenge now lies in its rigorous execution.